GEOPOLITICS

Geopolitics Prediction Markets

The most traded geopolitics prediction markets on Polymarket right now — live odds, volume and time left. Combine with Polymira's AI bull/bear signals to trade smarter.

US-Iran deal text released by...?

YES 100%NO 0%📊 $3.3M⏱ 12d left

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $2.5M⏱ 0d left

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

YES 100%NO 0%📊 $2.3M⏱ 11d left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

YES 43%NO 57%📊 $2.1M⏱ 11d left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

YES 8%NO 92%📊 $1.6M⏱ 11d left

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

YES 40%NO 60%📊 $1.1M⏱ 11d left

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $663K⏱ 0d left

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

YES 6%NO 94%📊 $612K⏱ 195d left

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

YES 35%NO 65%📊 $601K⏱ 195d left

Israel closes its airspace by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $433K⏱ 0d left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

YES 42%NO 58%📊 $421K⏱ 42d left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

YES 24%NO 76%📊 $368K⏱ 26d left

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $367K⏱ 0d left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $364K⏱ 0d left

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $346K⏱ 11d left

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $331K⏱ 11d left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

YES 47%NO 53%📊 $302K⏱ 195d left

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $300K⏱ 0d left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $265K⏱ 195d left

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

YES 8%NO 92%📊 $240K⏱ 12d left

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

YES 1%NO 99%📊 $206K⏱ 11d left

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $165K⏱ 0d left

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

YES 18%NO 82%📊 $160K⏱ 195d left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

YES 87%NO 13%📊 $155K⏱ 195d left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

YES 61%NO 39%📊 $142K⏱ 195d left

US military action against Cuba by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $140K⏱ 195d left

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $133K⏱ 0d left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

YES 53%NO 47%📊 $126K⏱ 42d left

Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

YES 6%NO 94%📊 $117K⏱ 19d left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $93K⏱ 195d left

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

YES 8%NO 92%📊 $90K⏱ 113d left

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

YES 13%NO 87%📊 $85K⏱ 195d left

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

YES 6%NO 94%📊 $81K⏱ 195d left

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

YES 4%NO 96%📊 $79K⏱ 12d left

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

YES 8%NO 92%📊 $65K⏱ 195d left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

YES 5%NO 95%📊 $64K⏱ 195d left

Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

YES 2%NO 98%📊 $51K⏱ 11d left

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $47K⏱ 11d left

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

YES 0%NO 100%📊 $43K⏱ 195d left

Netanyahu out by...?

YES 56%NO 44%📊 $43K⏱ 195d left

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