GEOPOLITICS

Geopolitics Prediction Markets

The most traded geopolitics prediction markets on Polymarket right now — live odds, volume and time left. Combine with Polymira's AI bull/bear signals to trade smarter.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
YES 19%NO 81%📊 $2.3M⏱ 27d left
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $1.2M⏱ 28d left
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES 19%NO 81%📊 $977K⏱ 149d left
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
YES 100%NO 0%📊 $877K⏱ 28d left
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $700K⏱ 28d left
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $353K⏱ 28d left
Who will Trump speak to in July?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $353K⏱ 0d left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YES 63%NO 37%📊 $221K⏱ 149d left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
YES 30%NO 70%📊 $217K⏱ 57d left
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
YES 100%NO 0%📊 $182K⏱ 0d left
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
YES 7%NO 93%📊 $174K⏱ 149d left
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $165K⏱ 0d left
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $154K⏱ 0d left
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $148K⏱ 28d left
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $133K⏱ 0d left
Iran leader end of 2026?
YES 3%NO 97%📊 $132K⏱ 149d left
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
YES 8%NO 92%📊 $105K⏱ 331d left
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
YES 1%NO 99%📊 $96K⏱ 149d left
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $87K⏱ 149d left
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
YES 34%NO 66%📊 $86K⏱ 149d left
Israel closes its airspace by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $75K⏱ 0d left
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES 67%NO 33%📊 $72K⏱ 17d left
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $53K⏱ 0d left
Iran leadership change by...?
YES 6%NO 94%📊 $52K⏱ 149d left
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
YES 32%NO 68%📊 $50K⏱ 58d left
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?
YES 11%NO 89%📊 $44K⏱ 4d left
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
YES 14%NO 86%📊 $37K⏱ 514d left
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
YES 60%NO 40%📊 $35K⏱ 28d left
Will Iran target a Arab country on...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $35K⏱ 28d left
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
YES 2%NO 98%📊 $33K⏱ 67d left
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
YES 1%NO 99%📊 $33K⏱ 0d left
Who will Trump meet with in August?
YES 1%NO 99%📊 $32K⏱ 28d left
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
YES 12%NO 88%📊 $32K⏱ 28d left
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $31K⏱ 0d left
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
YES 56%NO 44%📊 $27K⏱ 149d left
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $27K⏱ 149d left
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $26K⏱ 0d left
US military action against Cuba by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $26K⏱ 149d left
Trump out as President before 2027?
YES 7%NO 93%📊 $25K⏱ 149d left
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
YES 9%NO 91%📊 $23K⏱ 28d left
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