GEOPOLITICS

Geopolitics Prediction Markets

The most traded geopolitics prediction markets on Polymarket right now — live odds, volume and time left. Combine with Polymira's AI bull/bear signals to trade smarter.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $1.3M⏱ 20d left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
YES 4%NO 96%📊 $1.1M⏱ 19d left
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $910K⏱ 20d left
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES 19%NO 81%📊 $365K⏱ 141d left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
YES 17%NO 83%📊 $364K⏱ 49d left
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
YES 100%NO 0%📊 $251K⏱ 20d left
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $230K⏱ 20d left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YES 48%NO 52%📊 $225K⏱ 141d left
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
YES 32%NO 68%📊 $205K⏱ 141d left
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
YES 8%NO 92%📊 $198K⏱ 323d left
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $153K⏱ 0d left
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $137K⏱ 0d left
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
YES 9%NO 91%📊 $85K⏱ 20d left
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
YES 54%NO 46%📊 $75K⏱ 50d left
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
YES 1%NO 99%📊 $68K⏱ 141d left
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES 28%NO 72%📊 $64K⏱ 9d left
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $54K⏱ 0d left
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
YES 3%NO 97%📊 $46K⏱ 142d left
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $43K⏱ 141d left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
YES 13%NO 87%📊 $43K⏱ 34d left
Iran leader end of 2026?
YES 5%NO 95%📊 $40K⏱ 141d left
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
YES 22%NO 78%📊 $39K⏱ 20d left
Israel closes its airspace by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $37K⏱ 0d left
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
YES 12%NO 88%📊 $31K⏱ 506d left
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
YES 3%NO 97%📊 $28K⏱ 20d left
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
YES 100%NO 0%📊 $27K⏱ 20d left
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $26K⏱ 20d left
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $25K⏱ 141d left
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $23K
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $23K⏱ 20d left
Trump out as President before 2027?
YES 7%NO 93%📊 $22K⏱ 141d left
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
YES 3%NO 97%📊 $21K⏱ 59d left
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
YES 6%NO 94%📊 $20K⏱ 141d left
Iran leadership change by...?
YES 7%NO 93%📊 $19K⏱ 141d left
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
YES 8%NO 92%📊 $19K⏱ 141d left
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 5%NO 95%📊 $18K⏱ 141d left
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $17K⏱ 0d left
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
YES 4%NO 96%📊 $16K⏱ 141d left
Crude Oil all time high by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $16K⏱ 141d left
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
YES 0%NO 100%📊 $15K⏱ 142d left
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